Pea-Master? Para-film? Chances are good that streaming providers will take some time in 2024 to merge, regardless of the portmanteau they choose.
Towards the end of last year, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount were already discussing it, carrying on the conversation that began when WarnerMedia and Discovery originally combined.
The abundance of streaming video apps is starting to get reduced after years of “everyone has a streaming service,” as consumers begin to make difficult choices about which streamers are truly worthwhile. If crackdowns on password sharing, ad-supported models, and cancellations don’t make streamers profitable powerhouses this year, consolidation might, and the outcomes seem incredibly dull.
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Parrot Analytics, a company that determines the value of a show for a streamer, examined what different streamers would have to offer in four potential merger scenarios this week: Warner Bros. Discovery combining with Paramount Global; Netflix acquiring Paramount; NBCUniversal acquiring Warner; and Paramount acquiring NBCUniversal, or NBCU for short. The results depict a scenario in which a merger between Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount would result in the highest demand from viewers for the exclusive series produced by those two firms, as well as a scenario in which the results are so jumbled as to be nearly worthless.
Now let’s examine Para-Max. If they merged, they would have around 29% of the US market for series. In addition, Parrot claims that a merger of this kind would produce a portfolio of sports products (Warner owns TNT and TBS, while Paramount has CBS Sports) that might compete with Disney, the owner of ESPN. Additionally, it would unite CBS broadcast programming, the home of Deadwood (HBO), and all of the beloved Taylor Sheridan cowboy shows among America’s fathers.
Although that’s fantastic, it also seems like an attempt to establish a company in which only the titans receive attention. Reduced possibility of a Westworld comeback, more Yellowstone. A merger of these two businesses would result in more than just a new Paramount+ or Max, but it would also mean that even fewer individuals would be able to approve fresh, creative programming, and that rarely works out well. (It was canceled as I was writing this, so RIP Rap Sh!t.
Other mergers have similar results, even if the financials might not appeal to shareholders as much. Parrot estimates that NBCU and Warner Bros. Discovery together would give them just under 27% of the US market. About 20% of that demand results from the union of Netflix and Paramount; when Paramount and NBCU are combined, that percentage is little less than 22%.
These figures might not seem like much, but when you consider that almost 25% of the most popular shows are available in one location, you have to wonder what the firm that controls those viewers would do to maintain them. Disney, which commands close to 20 percent of that demand, is the only other firm that comes close to that number.
Although this is only one set of data on possible mergers, investment bankers are hoping and praying for more of these agreements in 2024, and marriages appear to be on the horizon. Not only would there be new streaming services, but there would also be new media conglomerates in charge of producing a significant portion of the entertainment and culture available to individuals in the US and abroad.
This has been going on for some time now—ever since WarnerMedia and Discovery merged, and ever since Amazon acquired MGM. M&A has replaced R&D. A New Big Three is probably in the works. It’s anyone’s guess as to which companies will comprise them and what services they will provide, but it doesn’t seem likely that they will differ significantly from what came before.
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