Amazon Prime Video could make more than $1.7 billion in 2025 after it begins selling advertising this month, with a projected revenue of more than $1 billion in 2024.
That figure pertains to what Moffett Nathanson refers to as “core Prime Video” and excludes the money made by Twitch, Freevee, and Thursday Night Football advertisements.
According to the paper, “Amazon offers unique market advantages in top-of-funnel reach and bottom-of-the-funnel targeting that could easily siphon dollars from most competitors in time as they scale their go-to market efforts.”
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Traditional television is further hurt by Amazon’s prowess in streaming advertising.
The research stated, “For cable network viability, we see this as another emerging pain point for linear media.” Amazon could put pressure on the middle to higher end of the market given its scale of impressions at relatively low prices. “For connected TV and ad-supported video on demand, while there is a race to the bottom from the emergence of free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) channels and non-targeted AVOD [ad-supported video-on-demand].”
It is projected that Prime Video’s core ad sales will increase to $2.757 billion in 2027 and $2.261 billion in 2026.
Amazon’s move to automatically provide the ad version of the service to all current Prime subscribers, according to Moffett Nathanson, is a “shrewd move” that will swiftly give it the kind of scale (70 million subscribers) that streaming leader Netflix is still working to achieve more than a year after its launch.
Moffett Nathanson estimates that 15% of American Prime Video homes will opt to pay $2.99 per month in order to eliminate advertisements, which would bring in an additional $400 million in subscription income for the platform.
According to Moffett Nathanson, Amazon’s entry into the ad business will have an impact on all of its rivals because of its e-commerce prowess.
According to Moffett Nathanson, Amazon will have the largest connected TV and AVOD ad income total in the market by 2025 if you include spending on Thursday Night Football and Freevee. In contrast, Hulu would earn $3.3 billion from advertising, Peacock $2.3 billion, Roku $1.9 billion, Paramount Plus $1.1 billion, Tubi and Pluto at $1.1 billion.
It is projected that Netflix will only make $400 million in ad revenue by 2025.
Moffett Nathanson anticipates a 1% increase in traditional TV ad revenues in 2024, aided by the elections and Olympics. TV will start to decline again in 2025, falling by 9%.
The AVOD market is predicted to rise by 18% in 2024, up from 17% in 2023, with the entry of Prime Video.
The research stated, “Putting this alt logether, we strongly believe that the long tail of non-top 20 cable networks — especially those without live content — will be most negatively impacted by the emergence of advertising dollars on Amazon Prime Video, plus the ongoing secular tailwinds in CTV/AVOD.”
According to Moffett Nathanson, AMC Networks and Paramount are the media businesses most likely to suffer due to their limited live content on their cable networks and lack of diverse profitability away from linear TV.
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